OK, 2008, it's time for a little tough love. Since we're such big film fans, the MovieRetriever staff has been trying to give 2008 the benefit of the doubt, but, now that the year is officially half over, we've finally got to say - this is one of the worst years for movies in recent memory.  What a dire six months of underwhelming, underdeveloped, half-thought-through dreck we've endured at our local multiplex.  Granted, we know that studios always pack the end of the year with the "prestige" films, the critic award fodder, as it were, but normally, there are at least 6 or 7 gems in Q1 and Q2 that we hope and pray that the Academy doesn't forget when they assemble the Oscar nominations. But, this year, dear lord, we'd be hard pressed to put together a Top 5 list for January to June 2008.  All of this has led us to start wondering... when the Academy Awards go to pick their Best Picture candidates for 2008, are they even going to have 5 movies to pick from?  The year has to get better, right?

The only movie we've seen so far that even has a small chance of being a contender for 2008's Best Picture Oscar is WALL-E, and we're kind of afraid that Academy voters won't recognize the movie beyond the Best Animated Film category.  (We'd also love to see Thomas McCarthy's The Visitor recognized, but we're worried that too few people saw it.)  And, while, yes, we know that there have been a few good foreign releases this year (Sangre De Mi Sangre comes to mind), but none have had enough crossover success to be serious Best Picture contenders (not even Pan's Labyrinth got a Best Picture nod). 

To calm our nerves and get us looking forward to the months to come, we took a gander at the upcoming film schedule for the rest of 2008 and came up with this list of 15 candidates (WALL-E not included) that have the potential to possibly take home the Best Picture Oscar.  Now this is just a list of hopefuls - some of these movies might exceed our expectations, some might miss their targets, others still might completely suck - but it'll definitely give you a sense of what we have left to work with for 2008 and the pros and cons of each project.  So let's hope that one of these features can win our hearts and pull 2008 out of the doldrums, or else we might be forced to stomach a dead-serious "10,000 BC - For Your Consideration" Oscar campaign.  The horror, the horror...

[WARNING - The release dates for these 15 films have been listed as tentative since we realize that premiere dates shift constantly, and some of these movies might be bumped into 2009. However, at this point, we're really hoping that some quality product scheduled for '09 gets moved up into this anemic-as-hell year.  Oh, and if we forgot a movie you're looking forward to, leave us a comment below and tell us we're idiots.]

*****

Movie: Crossing Over  

Director: Wayne Kramer

Screenwriter: Wayne Kramer

Cast: Harrison Ford, Ashley Judd, Sean Penn, Ray Liotta

Tentative Release Date: August 22, 2008    

What's it About:  Multiple storylines converge in this drama that takes a Traffic-esque look at the issue of illegal immigration in America, touching on subjects ranging from border crossing, document fraud, enforcement, culture clash, and homeland security.

The Case For Best Picture:  When the right "issue" film comes along at the right time, it can really click with audiences.  (Look what happened with Paul Haggis' Crash.)  Crossing Over is about the impact of illegal immigration on almost every aspect of American culture, so, if the release of the film hits at the right moment of cultural and political interest, it could be huge.  (It being an election year is probably a very good thing for Crossing Over.)  Also, the film stars Harrison Ford in a rare dramatic role - lately, he's leaned toward stoic action leads or, you know, Indiana Jones - which might bring in viewers who've been rooting for Ford to find an another Oscar-worthy lead since Witness.

The Case Against:  However, even though you can't fault the producers for trying to deal with something as culturally important as immigration on film, the early descriptions of Crossing Over do make it sound a LOT like Traffic and Crash and, to be frank, we're really damn sick of the "let's look at this issue through multiple plotlines" drama.  How many films are going to follow the Traffic formula for social issue success before it gets a little boring?  (Or has that already happened?)  And, the fact that it's written and directed by Wayne Kramer, who helmed the so-so The Cooler and the bat-**** insane Running Scared, isn't a particularly good omen either.

*****

Movie: Blindness  

Director: Fernando Meirelles

Screenwriter: Don McKellar

Cast: Julianne Moore, Mark Ruffalo, Danny Glover, Alice Braga, Gael Garcia Bernal

Tentative Release Date: September 19, 2008    

What's it About:  Adapted from the 1995 novel by Jose Saramago, this drama is concerned with the dark philosophical impact of an epidemic of "white blindness" that engulfs an unnamed city.

The Case For Best Picture:  Fernando Meirelles's two previous films, 2002's City of God and 2005's The Constant Gardener, should've easily been Best Picture candidates in their respective years, even though both were, inexplicably, snubbed.  Meirelles brings a poetic beauty and depth of character to his films that make them extremely engaging to audiences.  Matching his visual style with the words of Jose Saramago seems like an inspired match too.  And it doesn't hurt that the cast is about as strong as you can get (we're especially always glad to see the underrated Bernal).

The Case Against:  Sadly enough, the buzz on Blindness from the Cannes Festival has been almost universally negative, ranging from "it's just OK" to "flat-out bad."  If that wasn't bad enough, the premise of the film is hard sell, having way too much potential to be a). borderline silly or b). an overwrought downer.

*****

Movie: Body of Lies

Director: Ridley Scott

Screenwriter: William Monahan

Cast: Leonardo DiCaprio, Russell Crowe, Carice Van Houten

Tentative Release Date: October 10, 2008    

What's it About: The film version of David Ignatius' 2007 novel about a CIA agent who travels to Amman, Jordan, and teams with the country's intelligence chief to hunt down the leader of an Al Qaeda cell planning attacks on American soil.

The Case For Best Picture:  While last year Peter Berg's The Kingdom explored similar subject material - American government agents travelling to the Middle East to work with authorities to bring down terrorists - Body of Lies distinguishes itself almost immediately with its A-List talent behind the camera.  We're not ripping on Jamie Foxx or Jason Bateman, but it's hard to complete with the director of Blade Runner and Alien helming a film written by the guy who wrote The Departed and starring the leads from Titanic and Gladiator.  If this film was a baseball team, it'd definitely be the Yankees (based on the paychecks alone).  To be honest, we're most excited for a new William Monahan script, but Scott, DiCaprio, and Crowe have been involved with some of the best films of the past decade.

The Case Against:  While Body of Lies isn't technically an Iraq movie, there is a certain public resistance lately to embrace films about the Middle East, which is going to hurt the film during award season.  Even Syriana - which received quite a bit of critical attention - only performed so-so at the domestic box office and only garnered Oscar nods for Clooney and Best Screenplay.  Also the investigative procedural aspects of the story - elements that The Kingdom embraced - are going to make it easier to dismiss Body of Lies as a genre film. Granted, being labeled a "gangster film" didn't hurt Monahan's The Departed, but that was directed by Scorsese, not Ridley Scott, a director with a long resume of good-not-great films over the last few years (American Gangster, A Good Year, Kingdom of Heaven, etc).

*****

Movie: Doubt

Director: John Patrick Shanley

Screenwriter: John Patrick Shanley

Cast: Meryl Streep, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Amy Adams, Viola Davis

Tentative Release Date: October 10, 2008    

What's it About:  John Patrick Shanley adapts his own Tony Award-winning play about a nun at a 1964 Bronx Catholic school, who accuses a well-respected priest of misconduct in his dealings with the school's only African-American student.

The Case For Best Picture:  There are certain movies that people go to almost entirely for the actors involved, and Doubt, regardless of its Broadway pedigree, is going to be one of those movies. Last year, moviegoers buzzed about how exciting it was to see Philip Seymour Hoffman and Laura Linney together in The Savages.  Well, this year, they get Hoffman and Meryl frickin' Streep going mano-a-mano... talk about an acting powerhouse duo. It's hard to imagine two actors who could better help a Tony-winning play reproduce its stage-bound energy on the big screen.

The Case Against:  Not to be mean, but John Patrick Shanley, though an amazing playwright, has had less than a rosy career in Hollywood so far.  Don't believe us?  The last film he wrote and directed was Joe Versus the Volcano.  Yeah. 

*****

Movie: W

Director: Oliver Stone

Screenwriter: Stanley Weiser

Cast: Josh Brolin, Elizabeth Banks, James Cromwell, Ellen Burstyn, Thandie Newton, Ioan Gruffudd

Tentative Release Date: October 17, 2008    

What's it About:  A biographical portrait of U.S. President George W. Bush.

The Case For Best Picture:  OK, we'll admit, this is probably the biggest long-shot of the bunch.  But why should W be taken seriously?  It's a biographical examination of perhaps the most controversial politician of the past decade; Oliver Stone has directed some great Oscar-worthy films in the past (Platoon, Born on the Fourth of July); and Stone has assembled a helluva good cast, led by Josh Brolin, who didn't get nearly enough credit for his performance in No Country for Old Men.

The Case Against:  Here's the thing - no matter how good the movie is, the very fact that it's about George W. Bush makes the project so politically divisive that it's almost going to be impossible to discuss the quality of the movie without getting into sticky issues of party affiliations, current events, and political agendas.  That and the fact that Stone has delivered some truly crappy movies as of late (Alexander, Any Given Sunday).  W might get some acting nods, but the politics alone almost guarantee a Best Picture snub, no matter how good the final product is.  (It doesn't help that early online script reviews haven't been particularly positive.)

*****

Movie: Changeling

Director: Clint Eastwood

Screenwriter: J. Michael Straczynski

Cast: Angelina Jolie, Amy Ryan, John Malkovich, Jeffrey Donovan, Colm Feore

Tentative Release Date: October 24, 2008 (limited)

What's it About:  Based on true events, Changeling centers on Christine Collins, a woman whose son is kidnapped in 1920s Los Angeles. When the police find and return her son four months later, Collins insists that the boy they returned is not her son and begins a long, arduous fight to convince the LA authorities that a mistake has been made.

The Case For Best Picture:  Despite what Spike Lee might have to say about the subject, having Clint Eastwood behind the camera is never, ever a bad decision. Million Dollar Baby, Sands of Iwo Jima, and, heck, even Flags of Our Fathers were masterfully composed films and represent some of the best work of Eastwood's career. The very fact that he chose Changeling as his next project speaks pretty highly of the film.  Plus the movie got a tremendously positive reaction at the Cannes Film Festival, and, as she proved with A Mighty Heart, Jolie can be a powerhouse actress when she wants to. (And, as an extra positive for all your nerds out there - the script was written by Babylon 5 creator and Amazing Spider-Man scribe J. Michael Straczynski.)

The Case Against:  Even though Jolie delivered a great lead performance, A Mighty Heart - another movie about Jolie playing a wronged mother looking for justice - was almost completely ignored by the Academy.  Eastwood's pedigree, particularly in recent years, almost guarantees that Academy voters won't dismiss Changeling so easily, but Eastwood's tendency to keep things slow and contemplative might not work for audiences unless the drama can sustain the pace.

*****

Movie: Australia

Cast: Nicole Kidman, Hugh Jackman, David Wenham

Tentative Release Date: November 14, 2008    

What's it About:  Just before the onset of World War II, a female English aristocrat inherits a massive ranch in Australia and must team with an abrasive cattle rancher to move a herd of two-thousand-plus cattle across some of the roughest terrain the island nation has to offer to save her claim from English cattle barons.

The Case For Best Picture:  Talk about old-school Hollywood filmmaking.  The conceit behind Australia sounds like the kind of movie that Hepburn and Tracy or Bogart and Bacall would've starred in back in the day - mismatched couple thrown together against an epic, continent-spanning adventure who have to persevere and probably fall in love along the way. In the age of There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men, Oscar voters might be ready to ditch the bleakness and embrace a big canvas, star-studded romance in 2008.  And let's not forget that Baz Luhrmann knows a thing or two about larger-than-life love stories (Moulin Rouge, Romeo Juliet).

The Case Against:  While the scope of Australia makes us tingle, there are a few hard facts we need to address: 1). Despite her talent, Nicole Kidman has not had a good run at the box office lately. 2). This is, for all intents and purposes, a western, and lots of audiences, particularly young ones, have a hard time accepting the genre. 3). It's not just a western, it's an Australian western, and that just makes us think of Quigley Down Under, which is never a good thing. 4). Baz, while a visual master, can go overboard on his visual excesses to the point where it alienates certain viewers (people either love or hate the first 20 minutes of Moulin Rouge).  The title and ambitions behind Australia are unquestionably big, but let's just hope that it's not so "big" that audiences feel lost.

CLICK HERE TO READ PART TWO OF OUR 15 UPCOMING CONTENDERS FOR THE 2008 BEST PICTURE OSCAR...