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April 29, 2010
Box Office Predictions: The Top 20 Films of Summer 2010
It's the most wonderful time of the year for fans of the summer blockbuster and with total suckage like The Back-Up Plan taking up screen space, it couldn't come quickly enough. The season about to start looks a bit less promising than recent years, but there will certainly be a few massive hits.
Which movies will be on top? Which will falter? Last year produced 15 films with grosses of $100 million or more (two more than we predicted) and five flicks that crossed the $200 million mark and landed in the overall top ten of 2009. That means that it's likely that half of our biggest hits of the year will be released in the next four months. What will they be? Let’s look into our box office crystal ball to find out….
by Brian Tallerico
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1. Iron Man 2 (5/7)
Last summer's biggest movie was a part two to a recent mega-hit (Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen) and it seems likely that the pattern will continue with arguably the most anticipated film of the year. Two things concern me about the potential of Jon Favreau and Robert Downey Jr.'s follow-up to the movie that really changed their financial portfolios. One, we don't know yet if it will be The Dark Knight or Batman Forever and those over-crowded commercials have me concerned that it could be the latter. If this sucks, it makes $100 million less. It's also hard for the first movie of the season to make the most money simply because it will lose screens to other blockbusters week after week. But it won't matter if it has the opening weekend I expect of Iron Man 2, which could possibly break records. Does anyone think 25% more than the original is out of the question? Of course not. And that will put Tony Stark on top with a number that might not be matched all year. Prediction: $400 million
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2. Toy Story 3 (6/18)
Up floated all the way to the #2 spot in the history of Pixar and Woody and Buzz are not about to let themselves be beat by an old man and a talking dog. With both the cachet of Pixar and the trend of sequels (at least the ones that people actually want) to make more than the previous installment, it's not crazy to think that Toy Story 3 could topple Finding Nemo's hold on the #1 spot in the history of Pixar. Toy Story 2 made $50 million more than the first film and that was a decade ago. Another $100 million seems likely, especially with the added benefit of 3D ticket prices. Prediction: $350 million
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3. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (6/30)
Summer sequelitis continues with the third installment of The Twilight Saga, a film I'd love to see suffer the same fate as Back to the Future, Part III or The Matrix Revolutions and end up a disappointment but I don't think this mega-franchise is crashing to Earth anytime soon. Many people are absolutely nuts about the saga of the vampire, the werewolf, and the sullen girl caught in the middle, and having the Fourth of July weekend to reignite the war between Team Edward and Team Jacob seems almost unfair. Get outside kids. Go see some fireworks. Attend a barbecue. Read a book. Just not a Twilight one. Prediction: $325 million
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4. Inception (7/16)
It's rare to see a non-sequel or non-comic adaptation this high up the summer movie list but the fact is that Inception is a sequel in many a moviegoer's eyes in that it's director Christopher Nolan's follow-up to The Dark Knight. The Leonardo DiCaprio sci-fi extravaganza also has a spectacular preview, one that has had audiences buzzing for months. Once again, quality will play a major role. If Inception is as good as The Dark Knight, this could be even bigger. It certainly didn't hurt Avatar that James Cameron's uber-blockbuster wasn't based on a comic book. Could this be the Avatar of Summer 2010? Prediction: $300 million
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5. Shrek The Final Chapter (5/21)
It's been almost ten years since Shrek changed the animated marketplace and the franchise clearly shows its age. The previews for Shrek The Final Chapter hint at a film that's spinning its wheels with a generic It's a Wonderful Life story and animation that doesn't look like it's really improved since 2001. Kids are smarter than you might think and if Shrek The Final Chapter looks like as much of a cash grab as the preview makes it out to be, they won't give it the repeat viewing it needs to catch its predecessors. The first three films broke $260 million a piece. This will be the least-grossing Shrek film to date, coming in 35% below the last one and still making a truckload of cash but also diminishing the reputation of this faltering franchise. Prediction: $210 million
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6. Robin Hood (5/14)
Here's where things start to get a bit hazy. Generally, the second weekend in May is not a blockbuster producer as there are people still seeing the mega-hit from the first weekend multiple times, but Star Trek certainly broke that rule last year and there seems to be a lot of anticipation (and a lot of marketing) for the latest Ridley Scott & Russell Crowe collaboration. The character is popular – Kevin Costner's Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves made $290 million when adjusted for inflation – and this one seems more likely to draw adults than May competition like MacGruber or Prince of Persia. But there are definite elements working against the film including Crowe's recent lackluster track record and the fact that Scott failed with a similar piece in a similar slot with Kingdom of Heaven. This prediction is optimistic and could easily be much further down the list but we have to go out on a limb about a few things. Prediction: $200 million
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7. Prince of Persia:
The Sands of Time (5/28)
The outlook for this one depends on the historical record you choose. Memorial Day weekend movies almost always make cash. As do Jerry Bruckheimer productions. Video game adaptations? Not so much. So, is this Doom or Pirates of the Caribbean? The last few Memorial Days have produced controversial blockbusters like Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, and X-Men: The Last Stand and it seems likely that Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time could be one of the more divisive films of the season. It could be one of those flicks that makes money but no one admits to liking or seeing. However, if it's actually good, all bets are off. This one is going to fluctuate wildly based on actual quality. Based on the likelihood that the movie is so-so, an average Memorial Day gross seems in the cards – somewhere below At World's End but above Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian. Prediction: $190 million
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8. The A-Team (6/11)
The obvious comparison is last year's G.I. Joe: The Rise of the Cobra, which made a stunning $150 million, but The A-Team could have an even wider appeal with women coming to the party more often that last August's male-driven 1980s throwback as they are more likely to have been fans of the show and might be intrigued by the inclusion of Bradley Cooper. When TV adaptations go the "fun" route like Mission: Impossible or Charlie's Angels, they usually deliver at the box office (when they end up like Miami Vice ... not so much). Over $100 million seems guaranteed, but how much over $100 million? It looks like this plan could really come together and kick start a franchise. Prediction: $170 million
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9. Knight and Day (6/25)
Another question mark for sure but this one is starting to smell a bit like Mr. and Mrs. Smith, which was a huge summer hit right around the same time of the season. The Brangelina back story added a lot of heat to Smith, but people underestimate the ability of Mr. Cruise and Ms. Diaz to bring audiences into the theater. Tom Cruise hasn't really had a "fun" summer movie since he was arguably the biggest box office star in the world, doing more dramatic turns in films like Valkyrie and Lions for Lambs in the years since couchgate. And, yes, no one saw Cameron Diaz in The Box, but What Happens in Vegas made almost $100 million and that movie is like nails on the chalkboard of the soul. In a summer filled with guilty pleasures, Knight and Day looks like it could break through and be the adult/action hit for people not interested in vampires, superheroes, or 3D. Prediction: $150 million
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10. Despicable Me (7/9)
A 3D Independence Day animated family film might seem like a no-brainer and it would be if this was Fox, DreamWorks, or Pixar, but Universal is unproven in this marketplace. How will they perform? Last year, the same weekend’s Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs got close to $200 million but that was a proven franchise from a proven company. It would be stunning to see Despicable Me get to those numbers even with the benefit of 3D pricing although Monsters vs. Aliens made nearly the same amount and How to Train Your Dragon seems headed to the ballpark of $200 million as well. So how far below that mark could we realistically place Despicable Me? Universal's biggest computer-animated film to date? The Tale of Despereaux at $51 million domestic. But does the studio really matter? Can Universal play with the big boys? Mostly, but they'll still fall a little short without the marketing power of Disney or DreamWorks. Prediction: $140 million
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11. Sex and the City 2 (5/27)
It's naturally smart to leave personal opinion out of box office predictions but, man, this looks horrible. The only way it could be worse is if it were in 3D. But the awful preview is not going to stop the ladies who turned the first film into a mega-hit at $415 million worldwide. Think about that for a second. Sex and the City made $415 MILLION WORLDWIDE. It's insane, especially when one considers that it wasn't that good. But it caught a phenomenon at just the right time, something that can be hard to repeat in a sequel (ask the team behind Wayne's World 2). It's possible, even likely, that Sex and the City 2 will make a bit less than the first, opening just as big and maybe even bigger but fading off a bit more quickly: maybe 10% less overall conservatively. Which means it will still be huge. Prediction: $135 million
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12. Grown Ups (6/25)
The comedy star power of Grown Ups seems likely to translate to box office success, but the question is how much and which star to use as a model? Is this a Chris Rock vehicle? Adam Sandler? Or is it possible that Kevin James is the biggest star in Grown Ups after Paul Blart: Mall Cop success? It's certainly not a David Spade vehicle. Sandler clearly has the longest and most-proven track record and he will likely be advertised as the lead of this man-child comedy and Adam's films are consistent performers around $100-$140 million. The increased fame of James along with the draw of Rock should propel Grown Ups to the higher end of that range. Prediction: $130 million
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13. The Sorcerer's Apprentice (7/16)
If this wasn't a Disney film, it probably wouldn't even make the top twenty, but one should never discount the power of the mouse house to bring teenagers in for summer escapism. They know how to make hits like no one else. Case in point – the previous collaborations between Sorcerer's Apprentice star Nicolas Cage and director Jon Turteltaub, the National Treasure films, both broke $170 million. This Harry Potter wannabe doesn't seem to have the same broad appeal as those films but it seems like the gross of another recent Disney live-action fantasy film, Enchanted ($128 million) isn't too far out of reach. Prediction: $125 million
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14. The Other Guys (8/6)
Is Will Ferrell's new comedy another Semi-Pro or another Step Brothers? The season is so lacking in comedy (Steve Carell's Dinner for Schmucks could end up in this slot instead of Ferrell if it’s better) and director Adam McKay has a proven summer track record with Ferrell that it looks like this could be a hit by default. Ferrell's star seems to be in decline and we're still sore over that Land of the Lost crap, so a slight decline from Step Brothers is likely but it won't be too steep. Prediction: $90 million
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15. The Last Airbender (7/2)
Will audiences see this as an M. Night Shyamalan film or just a summer fantasy extravaganza? Honestly, Paramount would be smart to distance the flick from the man once dubbed the next Steven Spielberg after his last two films failed to break $65 million. For the first time, Night isn't working from an original script and could draw a ton of fans of the Nickelodeon show who were never burned by Lady in the Water or The Happening. In all likelihood, The Last Airbender seems like a film that will moderately deliver for Paramount but not break through its demographic. Prediction: $80 million
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16. Predators (7/9)
Guilty pleasure alert! Ignoring the second Predator film and the Aliens vs. Predators movies, producer Robert Rodriguez and director Nimrod Antal are set to deliver what could be one of the most purely enjoyable sci-fi action films of the year. Once again, what if Predators is as good as it could be? If this is truly the Aliens of the franchise then it could be huge. But if audiences can't get over the nausea still in their system after the awful sequels to the first Predator, then it could disappear. Reaching beyond the core demographic already jazzed by that excellent preview will be tough, but not impossible. This one may be optimistic but we have to be about something this season. Prediction: $70 million
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17. Step Up 3-D (8/6)
Most people think we're kidding when we mention there's going to be a 3-D Step Up movie. It's not a joke, a nightmare, or a threat, although it may sound like one. The last Step Up film fell a little off the gross of the 2006 original but it seems likely that moving back to the season of the first movie and adding 3-D grosses should give this one a leg up on the competition. Barely. Prediction: $65 million
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18. Marmaduke (6/4)
The preview looks like torture for anyone above the age of twelve but, then again, so are the Alvin and the Chipmunks movies and those things are practically licenses to print money. The same studio, same demographic, and same goofy talking animal should lead to moderate success but Marmaduke doesn't have the level of wide appeal as Alvin and his buddies. In a season overcrowded with family films and most of them in 3-D, it seems likely that Marmaduke could get relatively lost in the shuffle. The fourth Shrek film is only two weeks earlier and Toy Story 3 is two weeks later. The window for Marmaduke to make money is small but it should still be a moderate success. Prediction: $60 million
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19. Jonah Hex (6/18)
A Western comic adaptation with no proven stars and a character that most viewers won't recognize is a dicey proposition. The ceiling for this kind of film is probably Wanted ($135 million), but the basement goes much, much lower. Honestly, Jonah Hex could be a gigantic bomb, but Josh Brolin has a way of picking the right projects and we hope that he's done so again. Kick-Ass has a similar target and opened to $20 million with three-times opening weekend a safe bet for a final gross. Similar numbers for Jonah Hex are likely. Prediction: $60 million
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20. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (8/13)
Edgar Wright's newest film will almost certainly be better than #20 on the season when it comes to quality, but we shouldn't forget that the demographic for a movie like this one with no real stars and a limited fan base is pretty small. Michael Cera couldn't push Year One above $43 million and nobody saw Youth in Revolt, but buzz is building on Scott Pilgrim vs. the World every week. More than any film on this list, we hope we're underestimating, but need to stay realistic. Prediction: $55 million
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Potential Top Twenty Alternates (all of these have $55 million-plus potential but enough drawbacks to hold them back ... but if one of our predicted Top 20 bombs, it will be one of these that takes its place) – Letters to Juliet (5/14), MacGruber (5/21), Killers (6/4), The Karate Kid (6/11), Dinner for Schmucks (7/23), Ramona and Beezus (7/23), Salt (7/23), The Adjustment Bureau (7/30), Cats & Dogs: Revenge of Kitty Galore (7/30), Eat Pray Love (8/13), The Expendables (8/13), and Nanny McPhee Returns (8/20).
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why does sex and the city 2 look horrible is it because it is about something female or even god forbid something with a hint of homosexuality. I suppose superhero movies and guys farting and blowing #!@%*# up satisfies your intelect...keep your prejudices to yourself
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