There's a phenomenon in the entertainment industry known as the "sophomore slump," a terrifying condition (much worse than the "freshman fifteen") in which a movie director finds unparalleled success with their debut effort only to stumble (and, in some cases, crash and burn) with their follow-up project. It happened to John Singleton with Poetic Justice, Kevin Smith with Mallrats, Andrew Niccol with Simone - heck, as a director, even Kevin Costner followed up Dances with Wolves with The Postman. Even directors with less-than-successful debuts tend to have trouble with movie #2. It seems like, particularly for film directors, re-capturing lightning in a bottle is a really hard trick to pull off, so sophomore efforts in Hollywood typically need to be treated either with a wary eye, the suspension of disbelief, or one extremely big grain of salt. (There are many exceptions to the sophomore slump rule - let's not forget that Quentin Tarantino followed up Reservoir Dogs with Pulp Fiction.)

This fall movie season, there are several movies coming out helmed by directors finally getting back into the saddle following their first big theatrically-released movie, tempting the fates by signing up for a second go-around and thumbing their noses at the sophomore "curse." Some had massive success with their first features, others not so much. But here our picks for five of the most interesting fall movies being directed by sophomore directors and, based on their first feature, whether we think movie #2 has a chance in hell of escaping the sophomore slump unharmed.

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1. City of Ember - October 10

Sophomore Director: Gil Kenan

First Movie: Monster House (2006)

Chances of Escaping the Sophomore Slump: Average

Why?: Although the movie didn't exactly become a Shrek-level hit, there's a ton to like about Kenan's Monster House, a gorgeously-animated ode to the 1980s heydays of Amblin Entertainment creating cool, dark adventures for the discriminating pre-teen (Goonies, Gremlins, etc.). We were extremely impressed by Kenan's ability to balance character comedy and big-ticket spectacle, so perhaps he was a perfect choice to direct City of Ember, an adaptation of Jeanne Duprau's tremendous young-adult novel about a mysterious, ingenious underground city lit by electric lights and two teens who try to uncover the city's secret origins once the lights start to fade. (Even if the movie blows, seek out the book. It's a great read.) The design work looks amazing, and Ember gets big points for attracting such A-list (and atypical) cast members as Tim Robbins and Bill Murray... however, transitioning from directing animation to directing live-action is a hard trick to pull off and we're just not hearing enough pre-buzz about Ember to really make us believe that the movie has a chance as a mainstream hit. We want Kenan to make this movie work, particularly since we're fantasy-starved thanks to Harry Potter getting bumped to 2009, but the odds definitely aren't in his favor.

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2. Doubt - December 12 (limited)

Sophomore Director: John Patrick Shanley

First Movie: Joe Versus the Volcano (1990)

Chances of Escaping the Sophomore Slump: High

Why?: John Patrick Shanley is an amazingly accomplished screenwriter and playwright, but, believe it or not, he's only directed one other film in his career, and it was the rare Tom Hanks' flop, Joe Versus the Volcano. Now before everyone starts ripping on Joe, let us just say that we actually have a warm gooey place in our hearts for Shanley's ode to jumping into volcanoes - Hanks' "300 dollars a week" speech when he quits his job ranks as one of our all-time favorite movie monologues - but, given the film's critical reception, we can't really blame Shanley for not directing another film for 18 years. Thus, Shanley doesn't really have a lot to live up to with his sophomore effort, which is one of many reasons why we think Doubt is going to be a massive critical success. Doubt might, in fact, be the PERFECT post-Joe film project for Shanley to direct. First, it's based on his own acclaimed play that won both the Pulitzer Prize and Tony Award for best play. Second, the movie has a powerhouse cast - including Meryl Streep, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Amy Adams and Viola Davis - four actors who could make even terrible scripts sound good. And, third, in terms of scale, Doubt is a much smaller, more manageable project than a big sea-faring comedy than Joe, so there's no reason why Shanley shouldn't be able to keep Doubt from running away from him. Expect big things from Doubt this award season (and give Joe a second chance if you get the opportunity).

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3. The Day the Earth Stood Still - December 12

Sophomore Director: Scott Derrickson

First Movie: The Exorcism of Emily Rose (2005)

Chances of Escaping the Sophomore Slump: Low

Why?: OK, we realize that we're playing it a little fast and loose by citing The Exorcism of Emily Rose as Scott Derrickson's first movie - he technically directed the straight-to-video Hellraiser: Inferno in 2000 - but Emily Rose was his first theatrical film and his first film that anyone actually cared about, so we feel comfortable pretending that his foray into Pinhead-land never really happened. And while we didn't particularly dig Derrickson's take on modern-day exorcisms - the film never really tried to convince the audience that Emily's possession was anything but Satanic forces at work - Emily Rose was a big hit, both financially and critically. (Well, it was as critically successful as a horror film can be.) That being said, given its success, we're not really surprised that Derrickson was then handed the keys to such a big studio vehicle as the Keanu-starring remake of the sci-fi classic The Day the Earth Stood Still. However, even though it's a high profile gig, it almost seems like Derrickson is being set-up to fail. The original Earth Stood Still is such a genre icon that ANY remake is going to be unkindly dissected by all parties, and Keanu's Matrix baggage (some people just don't like the guy) and the Independence Day-esque scenes of destruction (which don't really fit with the original film) are making a lot of fans uneasy. Take all that and add the fact that we didn't really like Emily Rose all that much and, our apologies to Gort, but we don't really think the world is going to be standing still for Derrickson's sophomore effort.

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4. The Brothers Bloom - December 19 (limited)

Sophomore Director: Rian Johnson

First Movie: Brick (2005)

Chances of Escaping the Sophomore Slump: Medium Leaning Towards High

Why?: Every year, there are hordes of indie flicks that try to grasp the crown of "movie that all the cool kids are talking about," but very few are actually as legitimately cool as Rian Johnson's Brick, a meticulously composed tale of high school noir that featured the best movie dialogue since Miller's Crossing. After watching a film like Brick, it's hard not to be excited about Johnson's next project and feel that heady sense of euphoria that reminds us of how it felt when the Wachowski Brothers followed their first feature, Bound, with a little picture you may have heard of called The Matrix. So, given Brick and Johnson's obvious talents as a writer/director, we have good reason to be excited about The Brothers Bloom, a tale of two con artist brothers getting caught up in a game of Dirty Rotten Scoundrels with an off-balance heiress. However, the trailer for Bloom... isn't really doing it for us. A noir detective story is a lot easier to pull off than forced whimsy, and Bloom seemingly has an absurdist silliness to it - reminds us a bit of early Wes Anderson - that very few directors can manage. Plus, while Adrian Brody and Mark Ruffalo are great actors, they've done terrible jobs of picking projects lately, so their presence in Bloom isn't inspiring a lot of confidence. Still, we loved Brick enough that Bloom automatically gets our benefit of the doubt... a very cautious benefit of the doubt. Let's hope that this more Matrix than The Matrix Reloaded.

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5. The Spirit - December 25

Sophomore Director: Frank Miller

First Movie: Sin City (2005)

Chances of Escaping the Sophomore Slump: Total Wild Card

Why?: When writers discuss Frank Miller's career as a comic book legend and a burgeoning film director - he co-directed the 2005 adaptation of his Sin City series with Robert Rodriguez - they often use the word "visionary," which, while it sounds positive, can be a very loaded term. Often "visionary" is used to describe directors who are so caught up in their own insular aesthetics - aimlessly trying to create images they see in their heads rather than, you know, making coherent narratives - that the films they make can be described as "ambitious" and "unique," but not really "good." That's why we're so worried about The Spirit. It looks visionary. The trailer doesn't really do the movie any favors, making The Spirit look variously like a Sin City re-tread, a green-screened T&A fest, and perhaps the silliest thing that Samuel L. Jackson has done in a long time (and that's saying something). We totally acknowledge that Miller might actually be onto something with The Spirit, tapping the same creative, genre-exploding vein that he bled so expertly with Sin City, but we're also very, very nervous about an inexperienced director being given free rein on a comic book icon without having his experienced back-up (Rodriguez) keeping him in check. The Spirit will either be the coolest movie of the year or the most embarrassing flop in recent memory. Either way, you can't blame Miller for not being ambitious, but let's hope that he's just not being too "visionary" for his own good.

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Do you disagree on our takes on the sophomore efforts? Are you dead certain that Frank Miller and Rian Johnson are immune the sophomore slump? Sign up for a My VideoHound account today and let us know how you feel in the comments section below.